Polymarket (Global)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
December 31
Updated 14m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
16¢
Bid 15¢ · Ask 16¢
Pricedger fair probability
13%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
173,495
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder,…
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