Polymarket (Global)
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?
November 11
Updated 15m ago · Settles Nov 12, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
68¢
Bid 66¢ · Ask 70¢
Pricedger fair probability
69%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.9 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
40,187
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the re…
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