Polymarket (Global)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
October 31, 2026
Updated 14m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
2¢
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
0.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
142,130
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution sour…
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