Polymarket (Global)
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?
November 15
Updated 37m ago · Settles Nov 16, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
2¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 2¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
71,494
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Const…
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