Polymarket (Global)
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
October 31
Updated 38m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
13¢
Bid 12¢ · Ask 14¢
Pricedger fair probability
11%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
46,535
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of Ap…
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