Polymarket (Global)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
December 31
Updated 15m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
18¢
Bid 17¢ · Ask 18¢
Pricedger fair probability
15%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.1 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
176,349
Fine-print risk
58/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the…
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