Polymarket (Global)
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
December 31
Updated 23m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
64¢
Bid 62¢ · Ask 65¢
Pricedger fair probability
64%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.7 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
45,044
Fine-print risk
52/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Eritrean military force…
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