Polymarket (Global)
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Updated 17m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
10¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 10¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
1,791,671
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replace…
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