Polymarket (Global)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 30m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
8¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 8¢
Pricedger fair probability
4%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
225,301
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct milita…
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