Polymarket (Global)
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
December 31
Updated 17m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
80¢
Bid 79¢ · Ask 80¢
Pricedger fair probability
81%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.3 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
48,369
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administ…
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