Polymarket (Global)
Blue wave in 2026?
Updated 1h ago · Settles Jan 5, 27 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
86¢
Bid 85¢ · Ask 86¢
Pricedger fair probability
88%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
87,563
Fine-print risk
50/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress an…
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