Polymarket (Global)
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?
Up
Updated 3m ago · Settles Oct 9, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
95¢
Bid 94¢ · Ask 95¢
Pricedger fair probability
97%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
43,699
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 9 '26 12:00…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology