Polymarket (Global)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
November 30
Updated 7m ago · Settles Dec 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
12¢
Bid 11¢ · Ask 12¢
Pricedger fair probability
9%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.8 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
42,555
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to o…
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