Polymarket (Global)
Maia: Marco Trungelliti vs Francesco Passaro
Marco Trungelliti
Updated 8m ago · Settles Oct 23, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
79¢
Bid 77¢ · Ask 81¢
Pricedger fair probability
81%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.3 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
215,581
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Francesco Passaro in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Francesco Passaro. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology