Polymarket (Global)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Paris, France?
Carlos Alcaraz
Updated 15m ago · Settles Nov 9, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
76¢
Bid 74¢ · Ask 78¢
Pricedger fair probability
77%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.7 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
38,261
Fine-print risk
33/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
The 2026 Paris, France tennis tournament is scheduled for October 31–November 8, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Paris, France Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Paris, France Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player who is not listed wins the…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology