Polymarket (Global)
Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
Juan Manuel La Serna
Updated 7m ago · Settles Oct 23, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
100¢
Bid 100¢ · Ask 100¢
Pricedger fair probability
99%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
322,462
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Franco Roncadelli. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. If the match is canceled (not p…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology