Polymarket (Global)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Updated 8m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
2¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 2¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
173,122
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this mar…
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