Polymarket (Global)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Updated 13m ago · Settles Feb 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
331,629
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).…
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