Kalshi
Will the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?
Lula da Silva, 5-10%
Updated 4d ago · Settles Oct 4, 27
Kalshi YES
1¢
Bid 0¢ · Ask 1¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.1 pts
On YES after fees · medium confidence
Volume
24,778
Fine-print risk
4/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
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