Kalshi
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?
Yes
Updated 16h ago · Settles Nov 2, 27
Kalshi YES
79¢
Bid 74¢ · Ask 79¢
Pricedger fair probability
79%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-1.3 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
47,826
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
If Democrats win the election for any statewide office in Texas (including U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Commissioner of General Land Office, Commissioner of Agriculture, Railroad Commissioner, any seat on the Texas Supreme Court, any seat on Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, and any other office that is voted on by all counties in Texas) in 2026, then th…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology